There is a paucity of research that projects the public health and economic impact of healthcare interventions in the future. In this study, we aimed to estimate the public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060. We used a previously validated Markov microsimulation model that was specifically designed to assess the public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for fracture prevention in the French general population aged over 60 years in the year 2015. The expected benefit (in terms of fractures prevented) of the recommended intake of fortified dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake for the French population in France is expected to increase by 63% in 2040 and by 85% in 2060. In particular, more fractures would be prevented in the population aged above 80 years (increase of 117%). The cost per quality-adjusted life years gained of the appropriate intake of dairy intake compared to the absence of appropriate intake is further expected to decrease from €58,244 in 2015 to €42,616 in 2060. In summary, this study suggests that the potential public health and economic benefits of vitamin D fortified dairy products is expected to substantially increase in the future, especially in the population aged above 80 years. Decision makers should be aware of the current and future potential benefits of vitamin D fortified dairy products to protect bone fractures.
Key words
Cost-effectiveness, dairy products, fractures, France, osteoporosis, projections, public health.
